CHARLESTON – A longtime Republican political analyst says the next West Virginia gubernatorial election is Patrick Morrisey’s for the taking.
The veteran GOP expert, who broke down the 2024 election on the condition of anonymity, says he thinks Morrisey, who has been the state Attorney General since 2013, will end up running for governor rather than the U.S. Senate.
“The more people who get into the governor’s race, the better it helps Morrisey because of the different geographic areas of the state where different candidates are stronger,” the analyst told The West Virginia Record. “In the Huntington area, (businessman) Chris Miller will win a substantial number of votes. And in the Charleston area, (House of Delegates Judiciary Chairman) Moore Capito and (state Auditor) J.B. McCuskey will split that vote. Add (Secretary of State) Mac Warner, too, if he runs for governor.”
He said Morrisey will be “waiting in the wings after that.”
“All Morrisey has to do is have the huge support system in the eastern panhandle, which controls all state elections,” the analyst said. “He doesn’t have to win every county. He just needs a good showing. He has the name recognition, plus he has a pretty nice war chest that no one else has.
“Plus, of all of those candidates, the only other one likely to raise as much money is Capito because of his name and family ties. Honestly, I don’t see the auditor or the car dealer or the secretary of state doing that. I don’t think anyone raises the money Morrisey can raise. Plus, he has the Republican Attorney Generals Association, which is a huge benefit for fundraising.
“But still, I don’t think anybody beats Morrisey in the governor’s race.”
If Morrisey runs for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Democrat Joe Manchin, he sees things a little differently mostly because Republican U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney already has announced his plan to run for that seat.
“Mooney is from the eastern panhandle as well, but he is perceived by most Republicans as not being present in the state,” the analyst said. “He’s been elected, but he’s never had any competition from someone like Morrisey.”
The analyst said Republican Gov. Jim Justice would make the dynamics of that race different as well. He can’t run for governor again, and he hasn’t announced any plans for 2024. But he has said he has considered a Senate run.
“He’s an extremely popular governor,” the analyst said. “That would make the primary a bloodbath and a toss-up leaning toward Morrisey because of the eastern Panhandle. And both of them can raise funds.”
The analyst said he’s also heard state Senate President Craig Blair and newly elected state Senator Mike Stuart as potential gubernatorial candidates.
“Blair would kind of mess up the whole eastern panhandle dynamic for Morrisey,” he said. “But as we’ve learned in past elections, being president of the state Senate or Speaker of the House only gets you your county or your district. You can only count on your district and county.
“Once you step down from the podium, we’ve learned your political clout is out the window.”
Stuart also is a former U.S. Prosecutor and a former chairman of the state GOP.
“Stuart could run for governor without giving up his Senate seat,” the analyst said. “He might run just to see how he does statewide. He might use it as a litmus test. But if he does, he further divides the Kanawha Valley and Southern West Virginia areas all to the benefit of Morrisey.”
Another longtime state Republican consultant doesn’t think Morrisey can beat Manchin in a Senate showdown.
“The only person Manchin can beat is Morrisey,” Greg Thomas told The Record. “I think Mooney is a very strong candidate, and I think he wins the primary easily and beats Manchin easily. Plus, I don’t think Republican primary voters would give Morrisey a second chance to beat Manchin.
“I think Justice would beat Manchin, too, but I don’t know why he would want to do be a U.S. Senator. I know people are encouraging him and I know it’s because he’s had a successful governorship and has high visibility.”
Thomas said Manchin’s recent vote on the Inflation Reduction Act bill was “the nail in the coffin for his political career in West Virginia.”
“Mooney has the money,” Thomas said. “He has the record. He has the favorability. He’s been very successful in West Virginia politics, and he’s poised to follow that trend.”
As for the GOP gubernatorial race, Thomas stressed that it’s still early.
“I think the important thing for people to remember at this stage is that it doesn’t cost anything to tell people you’re running for governor,” Thomas said. “We’re seeing a lot of good candidates with support across the state getting into the race to see how it goes. They’ll be raising money and traveling across the state. Then, there will be a few check-ins throughout the next year to see where things are.”
Thomas said he thinks Morrisey will run for re-election as AG. And, he thinks Capito, McCuskey, Warner and Miller all could be good candidates.
“Moore (Capito) has a lot of statewide connections,” Thomas said. “I think his biggest task will be to show people he’s ready to take on the job as the state’s top executive.
“J.B. (McCuskey) has done a great job as auditor. I think his biggest challenge will be fundraising. If he can put the money together, I think he’s going to be very competitive.
“Mac (Warner) has done a good job as secretary of state, and he has a lot of experience in leadership positions. He knows people across the state as well, and his biggest issue will be raising the money.
“Chris (Miller) has a ton of energy. He has shown he can lead by being an executive at a large business in the state, and he has his own resources. The challenge will be a political learning curve.
“If he can he find the time between raising a family and running several large businesses to dedicate to his run for governor, he’ll be tough to beat.”